A POST-OSCAR CHAT
I fared pretty well, scoring 19 winners out of the 24 categories. The night proved to be eventful, even if it was pretty predictable.
Few surprises were brought by the near-Slumdog sweep (really, you couldn’t have given it Sound Editing?). To be honest, the biggest surprise came with a movie no one has heard of, when Departures won Best Foreign Film, beating the critically acclaimed The Class and Waltz with Bashir. Don’t get me wrong, I was on the edge of my seat during all four acting categories, with a somewhat pleased result.
WHAT I DIDN’T LIKE-- The format, namely how the acting prizes were handed out. The average time to present one of the acting awards (yes, I timed it) was 11 minutes. Eleven minutes… for one award? Go back to the normal way of giving out the award and you’ve just cut over 35 minutes from the show. But instead, we watched as five previous winners from each respective category kissed each nominee’s ass.
It would’ve been better if I actually believed that those five presenters had actually seen the performances they were hailing. (Do you really think Christopher Walken saw Revolutionary Road?)
-- The Oscars are notorious for their ridiculously long and plentiful montages (okay, the ‘In Memoriam’ one is a must, I get that), but the montages this year were just utterly pointless. Two separate episodes involved an assortment of clips from films that weren’t even nominated. While a ridiculously long musical number had… Zac Efron! The kids from Mamma Mia! Beyonce! And I ask… why? What is the point of boasting mediocrity? Maybe I missed something.
WHAT I LIKED-- For starters: Hugh Jackman. He didn’t tell off key jokes. He didn’t that many jokes at all, really. And after delivering a brilliantly paced opening musical number, he did a great job of not wasting our time with extended stage monologues. Bring him back next year. (Oh, and Anne Hathaway can sing? Damn.)
-- Penelope Cruz thanking Pedro Almodovar. Must actors thank their families and the director that directed them to this current award. Almodovar has been essential in the success of Cruz’s career, and it was noble of her to give a shot out.
-- Kate Winslet. Just everything about her. Seriously, what’s not to like?
-- Kate Winslet’s dad. That whistle? Hilarious.
-- Philippe Petit. The subject of Man on Wire never ceases to amaze as he demonstrated an amusing coin trick before actually balancing an Oscar on his chin. That’ll go down as this decade’s one-armed push up. Believe me.
-- Kunio Kato’s speech. The winner for best animated short gave a nearly incomprehensible speech before ending with the self-mocking phrase: "Domo arigato, Mr. Roboto." Classic.
-- Sean Penn’s speech. Yes, I wanted Mickey Rourke to win, badly. Yes I was disappointed when Penn’s name was called. But Penn showed us that he knows how much of a pain in the ass he can be. By taking shots at himself as well as the crowd, he proved his humor can come out. He also managed to, somehow, give the most moving speech of the night, when he switched to the topic of gay rights, pointing out the signs of hate that plastered the streets near the red carpet entrance. While keeping his fierce intensity, Penn explained the shame that those people will come to feel in due time. And, somehow, I like him more now.
So that should wrap up this year’s Oscar coverage. I’ve really enjoyed the bold choices that the Academy has made in recent years. American Beauty started the trend. A very dark film dealing with very touchy subject matter. Once the Academy embraced that film, it opened up some gratifying doors.
The next few years returned to traditional Oscar fare, but in 2004, everything changed. Million Dollar Baby was extremely controversial when it was released, and its Best Picture win was the perfect kick in the face to all the haters. Likewise Crash, The Departed and last year’s No Country for Old Men. All of these films have one thing in common: they are unlike anything that has ever won Best Picture before. Bravo Academy, keep it up.
WHO'S GONNA WIN
Before I sit down with my Oscar appetizer (that would be the Independent Sprit Awards at 5pm today on IFC), I thought I’d post my Oscar predictions.
A slew of tomorrows races are neck in neck, so picking them won’t be easy. Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress are anyone’s guess. But using my best judgment and reasoning, this is what I’m banking will win, (and of course, what should win).
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win:
Slumdog Millionaire. It’s this year’s great rags-to-riches story. A movie barely marketed prior to release became an overnight sensation. Why? Because everyone liked it. Why? Because it’s just that good.
Will Win:
Slumdog.
BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins- The Visitor
Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn- Milk
Brad Pitt- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler
Should Win:
Rourke. He delivers the year’s best performance. Sure this character parallels his real life with painful accuracy, but even in judging the performance on its own, it’s has more heart than anything else out there.
Will Win:
Looks like Penn. And I can’t complain. Penn gave the best performance of his already masterful career in Milk. But I’m really hoping people pull for a Rourke comeback.
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway- Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie- Changeling
Melissa Leo- Frozen River
Meryl Streep- Doubt
Kate Winslet- The Reader
Should Win:
Winslet. She’s paid her dues (5 nominations by age 33), and she’s considered by many to be the best actress of her generation. Although she was better in Revolutionary Road, she still hit all the right marks as a remorseless ex-SS guard in The Reader.
Will Win:
I’ll say Winslet, with reservations. Streep is right there with her and not without merit. Streep gave her best performance in years as a Doubtful nun, and she’s been nominated a hundred times (at least) but only won twice. But I think (or hope) the Academy will finally award Winslet.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin- Milk
Robert Downey Jr.- Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon- Revolutionary Road
Should Win:
Ledger. Take out the sentiment of his untimely death, and you still have an Oscar worthy performance.
Will Win:
It doesn’t give me any consolation that everyone is saying how much of a lock Ledger is. The Academy has given us a few very wide curveballs in recent years, which scares me. I’m not saying someone will dethrone Ledger, but it’s in the back of my head.
SUPPORTING ACTRESSAmy Adams- Doubt
Penelope Cruz- Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis- Doubt
Taraji P. Henson- The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonMarisa Tomei- The Wrestler
Should Win:
Tomei. She was the character audiences immediately identified with in The Wrestler, which allowed us to slowly understand Rourke’s character. Simply put, it’s the best thing she’s every done.
Will Win:
Cruz. Or Davis. This is usually the hardest category to call every year, with no exception here. Cruz had all the early buzz as the fiery girlfriend from hell. But Davis picked up quick traction for her 12 minutes in Doubt. Even Adams generated a little buzz towards the end of Academy voting. I’ll go with Cruz.
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard- Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant- Milk
Stephen Daldry- The Reader
Danny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win:
Boyle showed audiences how to miraculously fuse all the elements of filmmaking into a breathtaking spectacle. A lock if there ever was one.
Will Win:
Boyle.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Courtney Hunt- Frozen Water
Mike Leigh- Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonagh- In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black- Milk
Andrew Stanton- Wall-E
Should Win:
I love the Mike Leigh process of forming a script after rigorous rehearsals with actors. His filmed shinned with gentle optimism.
Will Win:
Black should beat out Stanton.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Roth- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley- Doubt
Peter Morgan- Frost/Nixon
David Hare- The Reader
Simon Beaufoy- Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win:
Beaufoy. For his seamless narrative.
Will Win:Beaufoy.
ORIGINAL SONG
“Down to Earth” by Peter Gabriel from Wall-E
“Jai Ho” by A.R. Rahman from Slumdog Millionaire
“O…Saya” by A.R. Rahman from Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win:
“The Wrestler” by Bruce Springsteen from The Wrestler. Oh wait, it wasn’t nominated. Okay then, “Jai Ho” or “O…Saya”, take your pick.
Will WIn:
I think Gabriel will pull an upset. Mainly because Rahman is already going to win in the original score category. Why not spread the love?
As for the rest, keep in mind that the Academy votes in trends. Most members pick the same film for all the technical stuff. Sound and Sound Editing almost always go to the same film. Likewise Art Direction and Costume Design. So think in patterns and you’ll either be dead on, or way far off. Personally I’d like to see a Slumdog sweep of every category it’s in (which would mean zero for Benjamin Button, but oh well.)
Are all of my predictions going to be right? God no. But that’s the fun of it. If you’re not kept on your toes for 4 hours then you’re going to have one hell of a boring time.
MY ALTERNATIVE OSCARS
As is my tradition every year, I like to make an alternative Oscar list. If I were the sole member of the Academy, this is what my list of nominees in every major category would look like.
Winners are in bold followed by a brief explanation.
PICTURE
The Edge of Heaven
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
The best film of the year.
DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky- The WrestlerDanny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
Jonathan Demme- Rachel Getting Married
Christopher Nolan- The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant- Milk
Boyle directed the best, most thrilling, technical achievement in recent years.
ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio- Revolutionary Road
Richard Jenkins- The VisitorFrank Langella- Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler
Sean Penn- Milk
The very best acting performance of the year (sorry Heath).
ACTRESS
Anna Hathaway- Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins- Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie- Changeling
Meryl Streep- Doubt
Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road
Winslet was more raw and emotional here than in The Reader.
SUPPOTING ACTORJosh Brolin- Milk
Heath Ledger- The Dark KnightBrad Pitt- Burn After Reading
Michael Shannon- Revolutionary Road
Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
No explanation needed.
SUPPORTING ACTRESSHanna Schygulla- The Edge of Heaven
Rosemarie DeWitt- Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei- The WrestlerKate Winslet- The Reader
Viola Davis- Doubt
My second favorite acting performance of the year (sorry Heath), not to mention the biggest snub of this year’s Oscar’s. DeWitt was nothing short of perfection as the smart, kind, and overshadowed sibling to her drug addicted younger sister.
SCREENPLAY- Original
The Edge of Heaven
The Wrestler
Rachel Getting Married
Milk
Happy-Go-Lucky
The long conversations, the gut wrenching emotions, the brutal accuracy. Just brilliant.
SCREENPLAY- Adapted
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Tell No One
How many movies have you seen like this before? People forget that a movie this rare starts somewhere.
DOCUMENTARY
American Teen
Standard Operating Procedure
Encounters at the End of the World
Religulous
Man on Wire
A breathtaking spectacle.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Wrestler
Rachel Getting Married
Slumdog Millionaire
No film looked better this year.
SCORE
Slumdog MillionaireThe Reader
The Dark Knight
Milk
Gran Torino
No film rocked better this year.
EDITING
Slumdog MillionaireThe Dark Knight
Milk
Tell No One
The Edge of Heaven
No film was better assembled this year.
Critics Pick: Who WILL Win
Here are a few critics (myself included, of course) I like and consider to be reputable, and their picks for who will win in all the top categories. (The New York Times critic picked Taraji P. Henson to win supporting actress, which throws his credibility right out the window).
PICTURE
Roger Ebert: Slumdog Millionaire
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone): Slumdog Millionaire
Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly): Slumdog Millionaire
Me: Slumdog Millionaire
DIRECTOR
Ebert: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Travers: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Karger: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Me: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
ACTOR
Ebert: Sean Penn in Milk
Travers: Sean Penn in Milk
Karger: Sean Penn in Milk
Me: Sean Penn in Milk (but my god do I hope Mickey Rourke proves us wrong)
ACTRESS
Ebert: Kate Winslet in The Reader
Travers: Meryl Streep in Doubt
Karger: Kate Winslet in The Reader
Me: Kate Winslet in The Reader
SUPPORTING ACTOR
If you are wondering this, then your head has been underground for 8 months.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ebert: Viola Davis in Doubt
Travers: Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona
Karger: Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona
Me: Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Ebert: Dustin Lance Black for Milk
Karger: Dustin Lance Black for Milk
Me: Dustin Lance Black for Milk
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Ebert: Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire
Karger: Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog MillionaireMe: Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire
LET'S TALK OSCAR
Most of the nominations in this year’s race brought little surprise, with a few exceptions, of course. Here is the breakdown of each nominee, the biggest snub in each category and the top two contenders in each race.
PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
The big surprise is the introduction of The Reader, which obviously took The Dark Knight’s place. Even though The Dark Knight had nominations from the Director’s Guild, the Producer’s Guild and the Writer’s Guild (none of which The Reader received), members still aren’t ready to give a comic book movie a shot at the big prize.
Surprise snub: The Dark Knight
Head to Head: Slumdog v. Benjamin Button
DIRECTOR
David Fincher- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard- Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant- Milk
Stephen Daldry- The ReaderDanny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
No Christopher Nolan. But, this list is rare: the nominations for picture and director are the exact same, only the 5th time this has EVER happened in Oscar history. The last time was 2005, the time before that… 1981.
Surprise snub: Christopher Nolan- The Dark Knight
Head to Head: Boyle v. Fincher
ACTOR
Richard Jenkins- The Visitor
Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn- Milk
Brad Pitt- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler
No big shockers here, although it’s great to see the Academy spreading some indie love to Jenkins whose spot could’ve easily gone to bigger names like DiCaprio and Eastwood.
Surprise snub: Clint Eastwood- Gran Torino
Head to Head: Penn v. Rourke
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin- Milk
Robert Downey Jr.- Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon- Revolutionary Road
Shannon was a great shock, but this is really Ledger’s to lose. Most people desperately want him to win (Shannon himself has said he’s voting for Ledger), but will all the hype be too much? I sure as hell hope not.
Surprise snub: Dev Patel- Slumdog Millionaire
Head to Head: Ledger v. hopefully no one
ACTRESSAnne Hathaway- Rachael Getting Married
Angelina Jolie- Changeling
Melissa Leo- Frozen River
Meryl Streep- Doubt
Kate Winslet- The Reader
This year’s biggest jaw dropper came when we found out Winslet only got one acting nomination, when everybody predicted two. But having her shut out for Revolutionary Road could be a good thing. Without the duel nominations, people won’t have to choose between two great performances, which could’ve split her vote. Now she has the edge over vet Streep and name-maker Hathaway.
Surprise snub: Sally Hawkins- Happy-Go-Lucky
Head to Head: Winslet v. Streep
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams- Doubt
Penelope Cruz- Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis- Doubt
Taraji P. Henson- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei- The Wrestler
The happiest nominees of the year are these five women here. Now that Winslet has moved up the ladder, they all have a decent shot. People that vote for Mickey Rourke could go hand in hand with Tomei. Cruz has paid her dues and deserves it. Davis has been around for a long time and steals thunder from the likes of Meryl Streep, a feat hard to accomplish. But my oh my, where is Rosemarie DeWitt from Rachel Getting Married?
Surprise snub: Rosemarie DeWitt- Rachel Getting MarriedHead to Head: Cruz v. Davis
Sin of Omission
By far my biggest issue comes in the best song category. Where in the hell is Bruce Springsteen’s nomination for his tender, moving title song in The Wrestler. I like A.R. Rahman’s music in Slumdog Millionaire just as much as everyone else, but he doesn’t need three nominations, (one for musical score, two in the best song category). He’s going to win score without breaking a sweat, so why did the Academy only allow three nominations for best song instead of five? Not only did they kick out Springsteen’s track, but Jamie Cullum’s title track for Gran Torino as well. Shame, shame, shame
I fared pretty well, scoring 19 winners out of the 24 categories. The night proved to be eventful, even if it was pretty predictable.Few surprises were brought by the near-Slumdog sweep (really, you couldn’t have given it Sound Editing?). To be honest, the biggest surprise came with a movie no one has heard of, when Departures won Best Foreign Film, beating the critically acclaimed The Class and Waltz with Bashir. Don’t get me wrong, I was on the edge of my seat during all four acting categories, with a somewhat pleased result.
WHAT I DIDN’T LIKE-- The format, namely how the acting prizes were handed out. The average time to present one of the acting awards (yes, I timed it) was 11 minutes. Eleven minutes… for one award? Go back to the normal way of giving out the award and you’ve just cut over 35 minutes from the show. But instead, we watched as five previous winners from each respective category kissed each nominee’s ass.
It would’ve been better if I actually believed that those five presenters had actually seen the performances they were hailing. (Do you really think Christopher Walken saw Revolutionary Road?)
-- The Oscars are notorious for their ridiculously long and plentiful montages (okay, the ‘In Memoriam’ one is a must, I get that), but the montages this year were just utterly pointless. Two separate episodes involved an assortment of clips from films that weren’t even nominated. While a ridiculously long musical number had… Zac Efron! The kids from Mamma Mia! Beyonce! And I ask… why? What is the point of boasting mediocrity? Maybe I missed something.
WHAT I LIKED-- For starters: Hugh Jackman. He didn’t tell off key jokes. He didn’t that many jokes at all, really. And after delivering a brilliantly paced opening musical number, he did a great job of not wasting our time with extended stage monologues. Bring him back next year. (Oh, and Anne Hathaway can sing? Damn.)
-- Penelope Cruz thanking Pedro Almodovar. Must actors thank their families and the director that directed them to this current award. Almodovar has been essential in the success of Cruz’s career, and it was noble of her to give a shot out.
-- Kate Winslet. Just everything about her. Seriously, what’s not to like?
-- Kate Winslet’s dad. That whistle? Hilarious.
-- Philippe Petit. The subject of Man on Wire never ceases to amaze as he demonstrated an amusing coin trick before actually balancing an Oscar on his chin. That’ll go down as this decade’s one-armed push up. Believe me.
-- Kunio Kato’s speech. The winner for best animated short gave a nearly incomprehensible speech before ending with the self-mocking phrase: "Domo arigato, Mr. Roboto." Classic.-- Sean Penn’s speech. Yes, I wanted Mickey Rourke to win, badly. Yes I was disappointed when Penn’s name was called. But Penn showed us that he knows how much of a pain in the ass he can be. By taking shots at himself as well as the crowd, he proved his humor can come out. He also managed to, somehow, give the most moving speech of the night, when he switched to the topic of gay rights, pointing out the signs of hate that plastered the streets near the red carpet entrance. While keeping his fierce intensity, Penn explained the shame that those people will come to feel in due time. And, somehow, I like him more now.
So that should wrap up this year’s Oscar coverage. I’ve really enjoyed the bold choices that the Academy has made in recent years. American Beauty started the trend. A very dark film dealing with very touchy subject matter. Once the Academy embraced that film, it opened up some gratifying doors.
The next few years returned to traditional Oscar fare, but in 2004, everything changed. Million Dollar Baby was extremely controversial when it was released, and its Best Picture win was the perfect kick in the face to all the haters. Likewise Crash, The Departed and last year’s No Country for Old Men. All of these films have one thing in common: they are unlike anything that has ever won Best Picture before. Bravo Academy, keep it up.
WHO'S GONNA WIN
Before I sit down with my Oscar appetizer (that would be the Independent Sprit Awards at 5pm today on IFC), I thought I’d post my Oscar predictions.
A slew of tomorrows races are neck in neck, so picking them won’t be easy. Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress are anyone’s guess. But using my best judgment and reasoning, this is what I’m banking will win, (and of course, what should win).
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win:
Slumdog Millionaire. It’s this year’s great rags-to-riches story. A movie barely marketed prior to release became an overnight sensation. Why? Because everyone liked it. Why? Because it’s just that good.
Will Win:
Slumdog.
BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins- The Visitor
Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn- Milk
Brad Pitt- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler
Should Win:
Rourke. He delivers the year’s best performance. Sure this character parallels his real life with painful accuracy, but even in judging the performance on its own, it’s has more heart than anything else out there.
Will Win:
Looks like Penn. And I can’t complain. Penn gave the best performance of his already masterful career in Milk. But I’m really hoping people pull for a Rourke comeback.
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway- Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie- Changeling
Melissa Leo- Frozen River
Meryl Streep- Doubt
Kate Winslet- The Reader
Should Win:
Winslet. She’s paid her dues (5 nominations by age 33), and she’s considered by many to be the best actress of her generation. Although she was better in Revolutionary Road, she still hit all the right marks as a remorseless ex-SS guard in The Reader.
Will Win:
I’ll say Winslet, with reservations. Streep is right there with her and not without merit. Streep gave her best performance in years as a Doubtful nun, and she’s been nominated a hundred times (at least) but only won twice. But I think (or hope) the Academy will finally award Winslet.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin- Milk
Robert Downey Jr.- Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon- Revolutionary Road
Should Win:
Ledger. Take out the sentiment of his untimely death, and you still have an Oscar worthy performance.
Will Win:
It doesn’t give me any consolation that everyone is saying how much of a lock Ledger is. The Academy has given us a few very wide curveballs in recent years, which scares me. I’m not saying someone will dethrone Ledger, but it’s in the back of my head.
SUPPORTING ACTRESSAmy Adams- Doubt
Penelope Cruz- Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis- Doubt
Taraji P. Henson- The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonMarisa Tomei- The Wrestler
Should Win:
Tomei. She was the character audiences immediately identified with in The Wrestler, which allowed us to slowly understand Rourke’s character. Simply put, it’s the best thing she’s every done.
Will Win:
Cruz. Or Davis. This is usually the hardest category to call every year, with no exception here. Cruz had all the early buzz as the fiery girlfriend from hell. But Davis picked up quick traction for her 12 minutes in Doubt. Even Adams generated a little buzz towards the end of Academy voting. I’ll go with Cruz.
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard- Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant- Milk
Stephen Daldry- The Reader
Danny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win:
Boyle showed audiences how to miraculously fuse all the elements of filmmaking into a breathtaking spectacle. A lock if there ever was one.
Will Win:
Boyle.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Courtney Hunt- Frozen Water
Mike Leigh- Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonagh- In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black- Milk
Andrew Stanton- Wall-E
Should Win:
I love the Mike Leigh process of forming a script after rigorous rehearsals with actors. His filmed shinned with gentle optimism.
Will Win:
Black should beat out Stanton.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Roth- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley- Doubt
Peter Morgan- Frost/Nixon
David Hare- The Reader
Simon Beaufoy- Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win:
Beaufoy. For his seamless narrative.
Will Win:Beaufoy.
ORIGINAL SONG
“Down to Earth” by Peter Gabriel from Wall-E
“Jai Ho” by A.R. Rahman from Slumdog Millionaire
“O…Saya” by A.R. Rahman from Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win:
“The Wrestler” by Bruce Springsteen from The Wrestler. Oh wait, it wasn’t nominated. Okay then, “Jai Ho” or “O…Saya”, take your pick.
Will WIn:
I think Gabriel will pull an upset. Mainly because Rahman is already going to win in the original score category. Why not spread the love?
As for the rest, keep in mind that the Academy votes in trends. Most members pick the same film for all the technical stuff. Sound and Sound Editing almost always go to the same film. Likewise Art Direction and Costume Design. So think in patterns and you’ll either be dead on, or way far off. Personally I’d like to see a Slumdog sweep of every category it’s in (which would mean zero for Benjamin Button, but oh well.)
Are all of my predictions going to be right? God no. But that’s the fun of it. If you’re not kept on your toes for 4 hours then you’re going to have one hell of a boring time.
MY ALTERNATIVE OSCARS
As is my tradition every year, I like to make an alternative Oscar list. If I were the sole member of the Academy, this is what my list of nominees in every major category would look like.
Winners are in bold followed by a brief explanation.
PICTURE
The Edge of Heaven
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
The best film of the year.
DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky- The WrestlerDanny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
Jonathan Demme- Rachel Getting Married
Christopher Nolan- The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant- Milk
Boyle directed the best, most thrilling, technical achievement in recent years.
ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio- Revolutionary Road
Richard Jenkins- The VisitorFrank Langella- Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler
Sean Penn- Milk
The very best acting performance of the year (sorry Heath).
ACTRESS
Anna Hathaway- Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins- Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie- Changeling
Meryl Streep- Doubt
Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road
Winslet was more raw and emotional here than in The Reader.
SUPPOTING ACTORJosh Brolin- Milk
Heath Ledger- The Dark KnightBrad Pitt- Burn After Reading
Michael Shannon- Revolutionary Road
Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
No explanation needed.
SUPPORTING ACTRESSHanna Schygulla- The Edge of Heaven
Rosemarie DeWitt- Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei- The WrestlerKate Winslet- The Reader
Viola Davis- Doubt
My second favorite acting performance of the year (sorry Heath), not to mention the biggest snub of this year’s Oscar’s. DeWitt was nothing short of perfection as the smart, kind, and overshadowed sibling to her drug addicted younger sister.
SCREENPLAY- Original
The Edge of Heaven
The Wrestler
Rachel Getting Married
Milk
Happy-Go-Lucky
The long conversations, the gut wrenching emotions, the brutal accuracy. Just brilliant.
SCREENPLAY- Adapted
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Tell No One
How many movies have you seen like this before? People forget that a movie this rare starts somewhere.
DOCUMENTARY
American Teen
Standard Operating Procedure
Encounters at the End of the World
Religulous
Man on Wire
A breathtaking spectacle.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Wrestler
Rachel Getting Married
Slumdog Millionaire
No film looked better this year.
SCORE
Slumdog MillionaireThe Reader
The Dark Knight
Milk
Gran Torino
No film rocked better this year.
EDITING
Slumdog MillionaireThe Dark Knight
Milk
Tell No One
The Edge of Heaven
No film was better assembled this year.
Critics Pick: Who WILL Win
Here are a few critics (myself included, of course) I like and consider to be reputable, and their picks for who will win in all the top categories. (The New York Times critic picked Taraji P. Henson to win supporting actress, which throws his credibility right out the window).
Keep in mind, there are always surprises. Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress are all very close races. And so it begins...
PICTURE
Roger Ebert: Slumdog Millionaire
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone): Slumdog Millionaire
Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly): Slumdog Millionaire
Me: Slumdog Millionaire
DIRECTOREbert: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Travers: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Karger: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Me: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
ACTOR
Ebert: Sean Penn in Milk
Travers: Sean Penn in Milk
Karger: Sean Penn in Milk
Me: Sean Penn in Milk (but my god do I hope Mickey Rourke proves us wrong)
ACTRESSEbert: Kate Winslet in The Reader
Travers: Meryl Streep in Doubt
Karger: Kate Winslet in The Reader
Me: Kate Winslet in The Reader
SUPPORTING ACTORIf you are wondering this, then your head has been underground for 8 months.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ebert: Viola Davis in Doubt
Travers: Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona
Karger: Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona
Me: Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYEbert: Dustin Lance Black for Milk
Karger: Dustin Lance Black for Milk
Me: Dustin Lance Black for Milk
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Ebert: Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire
Karger: Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog MillionaireMe: Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire
LET'S TALK OSCAR
Most of the nominations in this year’s race brought little surprise, with a few exceptions, of course. Here is the breakdown of each nominee, the biggest snub in each category and the top two contenders in each race.
PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
The big surprise is the introduction of The Reader, which obviously took The Dark Knight’s place. Even though The Dark Knight had nominations from the Director’s Guild, the Producer’s Guild and the Writer’s Guild (none of which The Reader received), members still aren’t ready to give a comic book movie a shot at the big prize.Surprise snub: The Dark Knight
Head to Head: Slumdog v. Benjamin Button
DIRECTOR
David Fincher- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard- Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant- Milk
Stephen Daldry- The ReaderDanny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
No Christopher Nolan. But, this list is rare: the nominations for picture and director are the exact same, only the 5th time this has EVER happened in Oscar history. The last time was 2005, the time before that… 1981.
Surprise snub: Christopher Nolan- The Dark Knight
Head to Head: Boyle v. Fincher
ACTOR
Richard Jenkins- The Visitor
Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn- Milk
Brad Pitt- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler
No big shockers here, although it’s great to see the Academy spreading some indie love to Jenkins whose spot could’ve easily gone to bigger names like DiCaprio and Eastwood.Surprise snub: Clint Eastwood- Gran Torino
Head to Head: Penn v. Rourke
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin- Milk
Robert Downey Jr.- Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon- Revolutionary Road
Shannon was a great shock, but this is really Ledger’s to lose. Most people desperately want him to win (Shannon himself has said he’s voting for Ledger), but will all the hype be too much? I sure as hell hope not.Surprise snub: Dev Patel- Slumdog Millionaire
Head to Head: Ledger v. hopefully no one
ACTRESSAnne Hathaway- Rachael Getting Married
Angelina Jolie- Changeling
Melissa Leo- Frozen River
Meryl Streep- Doubt
Kate Winslet- The Reader
This year’s biggest jaw dropper came when we found out Winslet only got one acting nomination, when everybody predicted two. But having her shut out for Revolutionary Road could be a good thing. Without the duel nominations, people won’t have to choose between two great performances, which could’ve split her vote. Now she has the edge over vet Streep and name-maker Hathaway.
Surprise snub: Sally Hawkins- Happy-Go-LuckyHead to Head: Winslet v. Streep
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams- Doubt
Penelope Cruz- Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis- Doubt
Taraji P. Henson- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei- The Wrestler
The happiest nominees of the year are these five women here. Now that Winslet has moved up the ladder, they all have a decent shot. People that vote for Mickey Rourke could go hand in hand with Tomei. Cruz has paid her dues and deserves it. Davis has been around for a long time and steals thunder from the likes of Meryl Streep, a feat hard to accomplish. But my oh my, where is Rosemarie DeWitt from Rachel Getting Married?Surprise snub: Rosemarie DeWitt- Rachel Getting MarriedHead to Head: Cruz v. Davis
Sin of Omission
By far my biggest issue comes in the best song category. Where in the hell is Bruce Springsteen’s nomination for his tender, moving title song in The Wrestler. I like A.R. Rahman’s music in Slumdog Millionaire just as much as everyone else, but he doesn’t need three nominations, (one for musical score, two in the best song category). He’s going to win score without breaking a sweat, so why did the Academy only allow three nominations for best song instead of five? Not only did they kick out Springsteen’s track, but Jamie Cullum’s title track for Gran Torino as well. Shame, shame, shame
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