SAG nominations: more accurate than the Globes?

Unlike the Golden Globes, the Screen Actor's Guild awards (along with the writer's, director's and producer's guild awards) have a far better track record at handicapping potential Oscar nominees and winners.

With that in mind, I am quite surprised at some of the actors on the SAG shortlist (No Wahlberg or DiCaprio, but... Hilary Swank?). Here's a breakdown of the SAGs major categories.

Best Cast

Black Swan

The Fighter

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

The Social Network

Usually a good rule of thumb is that whatever film has the most nominations will end up winning this. So that'd be The Fighter or The King's Speech (who each have three). Overall, I'd chose The Social Network or Black Swan.

Some Social Network chums

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges- True Grit

Robert Duvall- Get Low

Jesse Eisenberg- The Social Network

Colin Firth- The King's Speech

James Franco- 127 Hours

Mark Wahlberg is the big exclusion here, having been bumped out by the surprising inclusion of Robert Duvall, who gave a subtly brilliant performance in the little-seen Get Low.  Also thought I'd see Leonardo DiCaprio for either Shutter Island or Inception. No matter, it's Firth's to lose either way.

Duvall in Get Low

Best Actress

Annette Bening- The Kids Are All Right

Nicole Kidman- Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence- Winter's Bone

Natalie Portman- Black Swan

Hilary Swank- Conviction

Swank? Really? What about Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine, or Julianne Moore for Kids Are All Right? My vote is, of course, for Portman, but I'm telling you, watch out for Lawrence, she could sneak away with it.

Portman in Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale- The Fighter

John Hawkes- Winter's Bone

Jeremy Renner- The Town

Mark Ruffalo- The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush- The King's Speech

Love seeing Hawkes here, but I'm all about Bale. Ruffalo is a worthy surprise, although I would've gone with Justin Timberlake or Andrew Garfield from The Social Network.

Hawkes in Winter's Bone

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams- The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter- The King's Speech

Mila Kunis- Black Swan

Melissa Leo- The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld- True Grit

Props to 14-year-old Steinfeld, but it's Leo's to lose. Too bad Kunis' performance is too understated for most voters, her work in Black Swan was devilishly captivating.  

Kunis in Black Swan

For all the nominee's, including those in television, click here.