BAFTA Noms: As Close to Right as We’re Gonna Get

While this morning’s BAFTA nominations cemented much of what we already know (people love The Artist and Hugo), they paved way for a few surprises as well.

British film Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, a movie with, in my opinion, great acting and not much else, killed it with 11 nominations, while most every major category nominated a curveball to hopefully help Oscar voters realize that The Artist and The Descendants weren’t the only two well-made movies from 2011.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the BAFTA nominations are the best this awards season is going to get. Enjoy them, because come Jan. 24, we’re all going to be disappointed. Again.

BEST FILM

The Artist

The Descendants

Drive

The Help

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Seeing Drive here is epic. But this being a British film awards show, expect Tinker Tailor to take it. Or The Artist, obviously.

BEST DIRECTOR

Tomas Alfredson – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

Lynne Ramsay – We Need to Talk About Kevin

Nicolas Winding Refn – Drive

Martin Scorsese – Hugo

Alfredson vs. Hazanavicius. A win for Refn would be remarkably validating. But his nomination is his gift.

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

My Week with Marilyn

Senna

Shame

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

We Need to Talk About Kevin

LOVE seeing Shame here, but Tinker Tailor will win this without breaking a sweat.

LEADING ACTOR

George Clooney – The Descendants

Jean Dujardin – The Artisit

Michael Fassbender – Shame

Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Brad Pitt – Moneyball

For the first and only time this awards season, I get to say that Michael Fassbender actually has a chance at winning something. It’ll go to Oldman, but still.

LEADING ACTRESS

Bérénice Bejo – The Artist

Viola Davis – The Help

Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin

Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

Finally, someone acknowledges that Bejo’s role in The Artist is a lead one, not supporting.  This is wide open, could go to any of them.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christopher Plummer – Beginners

Jim Broadbent – The Iron Lady

Jonah Hill – Moneyball

Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn

Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Ides of March

I will never understand the ecstatic recognition Jonah Hill has received for Moneyball. Good enough, but better than all the snubbed performances? Not a chance. No matter, Plummer’s to lose.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Carey Mulligan – Drive

Jessica Chastain – The Help

Judi Dench – My Week with Marilyn

Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids

Octavia Spencer – The Help

Because Mulligan is the only worthy Brit here (Dench was great, but underused), she actually has a shot. BAFTAs will probably follow suit and give it to Spencer though.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris

Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

John Michael McDonagh – The Guard

Abi Morgan – The Iron Lady

Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig – Bridesmaids

A month ago, I would’ve told you that The Artist would win the Best Original Screenplay Oscar, among other things. But I think the tide is shifting toward Woody Allen, for the BAFTA and beyond.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon – The Ides of March

Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash – The Descendants

Tate Taylor – The Help

Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin – Moneyball

This will be the only award Alexander Payne’s film wins all night.

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

Attack the Block

Black Pond

Coriolanus

Submarine

Tyrannosaur

Paddy Considine winning for Tyrannosaur would be a remarkable, albeit slight, recognition of his great (and greatly overlooked) debut film.

FOREIGN FILM

Incendies

Pina

Potiche

A Separation

The Skin I Live In

Even though it has no chance, a win for Incendies would be incredible. A Separation director Asghar Farhadi can start drafting his speech now.

Click here for a full list of the nominees.