Oscar Week: My (Hopefully Not So) Dark Horse Oscar Picks

There’s a funny thing about Oscar Sunday: with every passing year, I seem to grow less and less interested in the crop of films that are nominated for Academy Awards. Don’t get me wrong, there are always some solid entries, but when compared to my personal favorite films of any given year, the Oscars simply don’t reflect my tastes. So here’s the funny thing. Despite my indifference toward the Oscar hopeful films, I’m still overly ecstatic for the big show. Why? Few reasons.

Look at it this way, most of the people I know who watch pro football, always watch the Super Bowl, even if their favorite team isn’t playing. It’s not always about who’s competing, it’s about the event. It’s the culmination of a year’s worth of creative endeavors that represent the artistic medium I’m most taken with. Do I always agree with the Oscar winners? No, of course not (hell, I’d have to agree with the nominees first, ya dig?).

So, no matter the year or the films representing it, I’ll always tune in on Oscar Sunday. And considering this is one of the (if not the) most unpredictable year I’ve ever witnessed, I think we’re in for a good time. Here’s how I’d prefer some of the evening to play out. My (not so) dark horse picks, if you will.

First off: “I find him a little crude, more crude than necessary.” That’s what Alan Arkin recently said about Oscar host Seth MacFarlane. I’d love to see MacFarlane go in for the kill in reference to this.

I hope Argo wins Best Picture. It wouldn’t be my first, second, or third (or fourth…) choice, but I think it would make for a great moment in Oscar history. The little engine that could, does.

I hope Emmanuelle Riva wins Best Actress. I’ve been hoping this for a while, and up until last week, my reasoning was based around the fact that Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) will surely have other chances for Oscars, so give it to the birthday girl (Riva is 86 years old today) and call it a night. But then I rewatched Amour and I realized how silly my initial reasoning was. Riva doesn’t deserve this Oscar as a gift, she deserves it because she is miraculous in Amour. Period.

I hope Robert De Niro wins Best Supporting Actor. What he has against him: he hasn’t won a major award this season for his Silver Linings Playbook performance. What he has for him: he’s Robert De Niro, legend-turned-inside joke who, through Silver Linings Playbook, proved he still has a little fuel left.

I hope Michael Haneke, Ang Lee or David O. Russell wins Best Director. Either, or. (For the record, most every prediction I’ve seen so far from “verified” sources, say Lee will take it. Interesting.)

I hope Quentin Tarantino or Michael Haneke win Best Original Screenplay. Really, if QT (Django Unchained), Haneke (Amour) or predicted winner Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty) wins this, it could be treated as the consolation prize for their respective films. If that’s the case, I really hope QT graces the stage with his confidently awkward presence.

I hope Amour wins Best Foreign Language film. Sounds like a silly hopeful, right? Nah. In the last few years, many lesser known films have beaten more popular competition. (No Man’s Land beat Amélie, The Lives of Others beat Pan’s Labyrinth, Departures beat The Class and Waltz with Bashir, The Secret in Their Eyes beat A Prophet and The White Ribbon). Many of those winners are great films, but most no one predicted they’d take home the big prize.

I hope Roger Deakins wins Best Cinematography. Troubling fact: with the exception of the acting and director categories, none of the nominees’ names are listed on the official Oscar voter ballot. I assume that several people reading this post are movie fanatics and are well aware that Roger Deakins (who is one of the most respected people in his field, but has yet to win an Oscar) gorgeously shot Skyfall. But keep in mind that most Oscar voters are not movie fanatics, and have no idea who shot Skyfall. So, if Deakins’ name was on the ballot, maybe he would have a chance at winning. But as it stands now, I suspect Claudio Miranda will take it for Life of Pi. Fair enough, Life of Pi looked remarkable.

I hope the remarkable Death of a Shadow wins Best Short Film, Live Action. This was a stunning, magical little movie that deserves to win. Most are saying the very weak Curfew is going to take it. That’d be a shame.

I hope, above all, that the show is fun, doesn’t take itself too seriously, and merits some genuine surprises. Oh, and it’d be nice if a few of the winners gave speeches as good as the ones here.

How about you? What are you hoping to see tonight?

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Top 10 Best Actor Winners
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Best Pictures: If I Chose the Winners
Best Directors: If I Chose the Winners

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10 Least Deserving Best Picture Winners