The Oscars are mere hours away, and I find myself
particularly excited for the show this year. One reason is because the two films vying for the biggest awards – Boyhood
and Birdman – were two of my favorite
films from 2014. But moreover, I’m thrilled for the Oscars because we have a
few legitimate chances for an Adrien Brody-type upset.
In 2002, the Best Actor race was a two-way dead heat. Jack
Nicholson was either going to become the first man to win three Best Actor
Oscars for his against-type work in About
Schmidt, or Daniel Day-Lewis was going to take home his second Best Actor
trophy for his ferocious turn in Gangs of
New York. But when Halle Berry opened the envelope and took a long, stunned
pause before saying Adrien Brody’s name, we witnessed one of the best, most
unexpected Oscar shocks in awards history.
What’s so fun about this year is that so many major
categories are locked in dead heat races. And, applying the split vote
Brody-model to these categories, we could potentially be in for some major
upsets this evening.
Best Picture and Best Director are split between Alejando G.
Iñárritu’s Birdman and Richard
Linklater’s Boyhood. I could easily
see either film winning both awards, or taking one each (Linklater for Director
and Birdman for Picture seems most
probable). But because the races are so close, what if Birdman and Boyhood split
the votes, and The Grand Budapest Hotel
sneaks in to nab Best Picture and/or Best Director? That’s assuming Wes
Anderson and his film are in third place (hell, American Sniper could be in third, but I’m pretty sure America
would implode if Clint Eastwood’s film won Best Picture). I prefer Boyhood and Birdman to The Grand Budapest
Hotel, but it would be a lot of fun to see such a big upset.
Three of the acting categories are all but sewn up. But
while Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette will all likely be
giving speeches tonight, Best Actor is an insanely tight race between Michael
Keaton (for Birdman) and Eddie
Redmayne (for The Theory of Everything).
This is the category where a Brody split seems most realistic, with Bradley
Cooper (for American Sniper) sneaking
in for the win because Keaton and Redmayne cancelled each other out. My vote
has always been for Keaton to win here, but, again, it’d be damn exciting to
see a major upset.
Noting all this, I must admit that I’m writing this post
with a bit of trepidation. I fear that, rereading it tomorrow, my words here
will come off as romantic Oscar pipe dreams. In truth, the Oscars rarely
surprise us anymore. If you’re even remotely invested in the annual movie
awards hustle, you usually have a pretty good idea who is going to win on Oscar
night. However, as far as this evening is concerned, I am glad that not every
major category is a foregone conclusion. I honestly have no clue if it will be
Boyhood or Birdman, Linklater or Iñárritu, Keaton or Redmayne, and that in and
of itself makes this year’s Oscars worth watching.
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Oh I hear ya man, really excited now, I just don't know who will win! I'm going to be completely honest and am hoping for a Adrien Brody type situation this year in the Best Actor category, but instead of Bradley Cooper, I know I'm hoping for Steve Carell. Just my favorite performance of the year and really hoping he will win. But, somehow I doubt it. This is the best Oscar year I've witnessed since I've started to follow the Oscars, and am sitting in front of my tv right now waiting for it (gotta try to do my homework before it starts, your blog isn't helping). And you really think Birdman has a higher chance of winning Best Picture over Boyhood? I'm thinking the opposite. Boyhood just seems to have the more epic and grand feel (which I've started to learn the Academy loves) which Birdman doesn't quite have (I'm not saying it's bad in any way though). I guess we'll see in a couple of hours!
ReplyDeleteI honestly think Birdman and Boyhood are neck and neck. I could see it going to either of them, but something tells me Birdman will just barely win Best Picture. But yep, we'll see very shortly!
DeleteAmen! I feel pretty good about Linklater's chances, for some reason, but Actor and Picture have me baffled. It's so exciting!
ReplyDeleteIt is indeed! I would LOVE for Linklater to win.
DeleteI can't even remember the last time i was surprised by the Oscars. They are way too predictable and that takes a lot of the fun out of it. It's like we already know the winners and are just waiting for their speeches. I would love a surprise win this year, especially for Rosamund Pike over Julianne Moore, but i doubt it.
ReplyDeleteSadly, I'm in full agreement with your comment. "...just waiting for their speeches," is so on point. Last year especially, for the acting awards... it was just kind of a bummer. At least actor is really close this year.
DeleteI feel you. Every year, even when the ceremony gets predictable, I always still hold out hope we will be in for a Brody, which might be plausible this year. Possibly Cooper over Keaton/Redmayne or even Whiplash winning Best Picture because I have heard rumblings that voters really liked it. But, we shall see.
ReplyDeleteWe shall indeed. Man, I would LOVE for Whiplash to win something (other than Supporting Actor, of course). A screenplay win would be heaven.
DeleteSo even though Whiplash didn't win Best Screenplay, it was still a rare year where cinema and precision won over prestige and sentiment thanks to Birdman, Budapest, and Whiplash emerging the big winners. Usually, it is the other way around with wins like Rocky over Taxi Driver, English Patient over Fargo, and Dances with Wolves over Goodfellas. So this was a nice change of pace. Although I was bummed Keaton lost, I was still ecstastic Birdman won the big prize.
DeleteYeah, I agree with you here. I'm bummed about Keaton as well, but I guess you can't win 'em all. And I love that there were so many prestigious winners here.
DeleteYeah, I'm not watching the Oscars this year. I'm too jaded at this point because it's getting way too predictable. I would love it if someone pulls a Brody or a Cotillard. :)
ReplyDeleteYeah man, I feel you. The Cotillard win was so epic. Those are two of my favorite Oscar wins ever.
DeleteNo surprises honestly (Boyhood and Linklater really should have won imo) but pretty much everything went as expected. It's such a shame that these things have become so damn predictable... I wind up just feeling bad having watched it knowing that they turn out as they're expected to. Hopefully one day you'll be up there and I can say, "That Alex Withrow guy is totally gonna win cause he's won everything else."
ReplyDeleteAh man, you're so kind! But hey, dare to dream, right?
DeleteAnd yep, everything pretty much went as expected. But still, it's nice that Picture, Director, Actor and the Screenplays weren't total locks going in.
Birdman deserved the win, we both know that, it's in a league of its own. Great movie, very unique. Norton killed it. Keep doing your thing, Alex..
ReplyDeleteThanks buddy! It definitely deserved the win - I absolutely loved that film.
DeleteGod, I remember that Brody moment. That was such a thrill, and I wasn't even really rooting for him. The thing is, though, I think that 2002 race in the current climate would have been spoiled in the run-up to the ceremony. I remember reading in the aftermath that industry "insiders" were hearing rumblings of a Brody upset. Except that because there was no social media back then it was so much more difficult to spill the beans to the whole world. I just think the way things are now......Oscar surprises of that scale are all but dead.
ReplyDeleteMaybe next year I'll be proven wrong. I hope so.
You're so right, social media really did ruin any chance of a massive shocker on Oscar night. I kind of miss those days, when your Oscar predictions were based on history, instinct and movie intellect. Now you can aggregate predictions of 50 "experts" on twitter within a matter of seconds.
DeleteI still haven't watched the full show yet, but I know all of the winners. I'm happy for Birdman, because it certainly is a great film that is deserving of its accolades. I wish they would have given Wes and Linklater *something* though. I was hoping Pike or Cotillard would pull an upset, but I mean... Academy Award winner Julianne Moore. Fucking finally.
ReplyDeleteYeah it would've been nice for Linklater to win Screenplay or Picture, but I can't argue against Birdman at all. And I agree, a Pike or Marion shocker would've been great, but Moore's win is so well deserved.
DeleteBesides Julianne and Patricia as locks, I really didn't have a clue between Birdman/Boyhood or Redmayne/Keaton. Everything seemed to be tied between them. I had suspected slightly that Selma would win for Best Picture after Common and John Legend's performance. The Best Picture/Director and Actor upsets were pleasant surprises!
ReplyDeleteIt definitely was nice that not every major category was all but written. I would've loved some more love for Boyhood, but Birdman is a great film.
DeleteI think this kind of upset got Robert De Niro for Casino and Heat. Both great films in 1995, De Niro split his vote. This, I think, happened with Jessica Chastain this year, in 2014, for Interstellar, which was seen by more people, and A Most Violent Year, which was liked by more people.
ReplyDeleteYou're right, actors splitting their own vote is a whole other problem. Like Billy Bob Thornton for Monster's Ball and The Man Who Wasn't There, or the two you mentioned. Chastain gave 4 excellent performances last year, and I do think they cancelled each other out in some ways. I was really hoping she'd get a nom for A Most Violent Year though.
DeleteOverall it was a fine, but very boring ceremony this year. The only thing i really disagreed with was the Best Actor win. It definitely should have gone to Keaton.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I agree. Decent show, but not very engaging. Some solid speeches though. I'll never understand Redmayne beating Keaton.
DeleteCompletely agree. Keaton should have won not Redmayne.
ReplyDeleteYep, no question.
DeleteLove this. I wish the Oscars surprised us more. I actually predicted 21 of the 24 categories correctly this year. They're getting too predictable, sadly.
ReplyDeleteYes, they certainly are. I got 22 this year. Where's the fun in that, you know?
Delete